Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-11 1.588834 1.662765 1.739969 1.826913 1.922481 2.024770 2.143122
2026-01-18 1.504096 1.603022 1.710064 1.835417 1.979421 2.141230 2.339095
2026-01-25 1.417432 1.529317 1.653358 1.802679 1.979825 2.186344 2.450193
2026-02-01 1.361069 1.483675 1.622425 1.793492 2.002330 2.254172 2.589656
2026-02-08 1.312114 1.442401 1.592374 1.781041 2.017129 2.310508 2.716635
2026-02-15 1.268703 1.404571 1.563236 1.766329 2.026044 2.357620 2.833317
2026-02-22 1.240617 1.383023 1.551702 1.771400 2.058646 2.435883 2.998375
2026-03-01 1.195832 1.339064 1.510292 1.735871 2.035203 2.435953 3.049882
2026-03-08 1.160562 1.305204 1.479675 1.712122 2.025145 2.452467 3.125702
2026-03-15 1.132402 1.278936 1.457255 1.697492 2.025831 2.483076 3.224905
2026-03-22 1.123311 1.275839 1.463657 1.720538 2.078843 2.591949 3.460480
2026-03-29 1.118605 1.277835 1.476298 1.752044 2.145057 2.725217 3.755454
2026-04-05 1.098165 1.259649 1.462682 1.748015 2.161217 2.785299 3.935811
2026-04-12 1.081793 1.246058 1.454429 1.750730 2.187011 2.862219 4.159385
2026-04-19 1.052619 1.215034 1.421996 1.718085 2.157845 2.847273 4.201761
2026-04-26 1.033823 1.196974 1.406234 1.708242 2.162492 2.888332 4.363479
2026-05-03 1.015220 1.178627 1.389440 1.696101 2.162677 2.921449 4.513927
2026-05-10 0.996972 1.160257 1.372019 1.682264 2.159267 2.947732 4.653855
2026-05-17 0.986310 1.151570 1.367399 1.686655 2.184558 3.026311 4.928815
2026-05-24 0.963060 1.125613 1.338391 1.654131 2.148883 2.991650 4.925182
2026-05-31 0.944526 1.105592 1.317108 1.632381 2.129732 2.986146 4.994261
2026-06-07 0.929646 1.090161 1.301790 1.618977 2.123537 3.004238 5.127701
2026-06-14 0.927137 1.091249 1.309373 1.640012 2.175141 3.136312 5.599562